SPECIAL REPORT
The global labour market is in a paradoxical transition. For some job seekers, their career transition is being rerouted indefinitely.
Katherine Steiner-Dicks analyses domestic and global macroeconomic environments and high-impact redundancy and immigration policy events. The findings reveal that global hiring trends are becoming more interlinked than previously thought, raising questions about whether this interconnectedness benefits all workers and economies equally.
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Let’s start with the UK labour market, which in the third quarter of 2025 proved to be in a deep-seated state of uncertainty and sluggishness. That’s down to a sustained period of corporate caution and declining permanent vacancies coexisting with a strategic shift to a flexible, project-based AI-loving workforce.
For most freelancers and fixed-term contractors (1.57 billion people out of the total 3.38 billion workforce), that’s not necessarily bad news.
Yet, LinkedIn chatter reveals many freelancers, especially in the UK, are in dire need of work. They’re either being ghosted following positive interviews, meetings and pitches or applying for assignments that get dropped or have already been filled.
UK jobs market: fuelled by uncertainty?
The latest ONS analysis indicates that the UK unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at or slightly above its near four-year high of 4.7%. This stability is not a sign of economic health but rather a symptom of conflicting pressures.
Large-scale, policy-driven redundancies in sectors such as retail and the public-facing NHS have created a significant pool of available talent. But where are they turning to for employment?
Overall, one in four (25%) employers planned to make redundancies in the three months to March 2025. This was a significant change from 21% in the last quarter of 2024 and the highest number seen in the past ten years outside of the pandemic. It rose sharply in the private sector from 22% last quarter to 27% in the first quarter of 2025.
Traditional job openings and career paths are in decline
At the same time, the number of traditional job openings and middle management roles has continued its decline, a trend spanning over three years. Is this the end of career progression? Raises? Mentorship?
The CEO of US second-hand goods charity Goodwill, warned in an interview of the future implications of AI replacing entry-level and mid-level workers, leaving Gen Zers and others without on-the-job core skills and mentoring.
The same may be the case for this generation in the freelance economy.
It can be argued that today’s seasoned flexible talent (people aged 40 years and older) can thank their success on those early career days where they received on-the-job training and mentorship. Younger generations and future ones may only receive these “experiences” or tips via an online course, master class or YouTube video.
That said, Gen Zers are embracing freelancing. Upwork reported 53% of Gen Z freelancers work full-time hours on freelance projects, abandoning traditional nine-to-five jobs. Gen Z freelancers are also adopting generative AI at greater rates (61%) compared to their Gen Z full-time employee counterparts (41%). This is yet again why companies may lean towards a more flexible workforce as competition to become more AI-friendly rises with each new fiscal quarter.
Copycat redundancy policies
As the freelance economy becomes increasingly global and interlinked, any policies on hiring or redundancy in one market can influence another. For example, nearly 750,000 North Americans lost their jobs in the first half of 2025 as federal cuts, tariff fears and management roles were replaced with AI agents, driving a historic wave of redundancies since COVID lockdowns.
In this environment, companies are managing risk and costs by turning to a new talent strategy: lay off, hire less, invest in AI more. Then see what happens.
In 2025, Microsoft confirmed a fifth consecutive month of layoffs, reaching a cumulative workforce reduction exceeding 15,000 employees globally. Rather than filling permanent roles, big tech companies and others are increasingly turning to AI agents and freelancers and independent contractors from all over the world.
But even that trend can come with its own set of domestic protectionist measures from market to market.
Who freelancers need to target: CEO-2
Freelancers who can create or enhance AI tools or services for the true decision makers at a company could improve their chances of engagement and earning potential. But who are the best people to connect with?
According to McKinsey, it’s the people holding “CEO-2” roles. The vice-president-level and director-level positions that are “essential for successful execution but do not report directly to the CEO; such positions comprise as much as 90 to 95 per cent of a company’s critical roles.”
McKinsey stated:
In fact, leading organisations have found that more than 50 per cent of value created is concentrated in about 15 of the most critical roles, most of which are at the CEO-2 or more junior level.
Global worker policy ripples to watch
United States
Arguably, the world’s largest institutionalised freelancer market is the United States. By 2027, 86.5 million people are expected to be freelancing in the US, making up 50.9 per cent of the total US workforce, according to a 2024 Statista report.
As previously reported by The Freelance Informer in July of this year, the United States’ technology policy is moving towards a more nationalistic approach that prioritises domestic job creation and technological dominance.
This stance, strongly expressed by President Donald Trump, during his remarks at the Washington Artificial Intelligence (AI) Summit, could have profound implications for non-US-based freelancers and contractors working in the global tech industry.
During a recent address, Mr Trump emphasised a vision where “US technology companies are all in for America.”
Fast-forward to September 2025, and things have radically changed.
H-1B visas
On Friday, 19 September 2025, President Donald J. Trump signed a Proclamation, “Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers,” that took an important, initial, and incremental step to reform the H-1B visa programme to curb abuses, to protect American workers and hire more recent US citizen graduates from US universities.
It requires a $100,000 non-refundable payment to accompany any new H-1B visa petitions submitted after 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on September 21, 2025. This includes the 2026 lottery, and any other H-1B petitions submitted after 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on September 21, 2025.
News of the visa changes has created hiring uncertainty and last-minute chaos for many companies, including airlines, research institutions, tech companies and private equity-backed portfolio companies.
Foreign workers on H-1B visas now account for 65% of the IT workforce in the US.
Visa fees could spur talent offshoring for big tech and banking companies adopting AI tools (Amazon, Meta, TCS, Apple, JP Morgan Chase, etc.)
- “Little” tech and startups to suffer talent shortage (CNBC)
- US film industry to take production overseas (CNBC)
- Groundbreaking research projects to see talent leave US
However, if President Trump has made sweeping policy changes in the past, notably with tariffs and tweaked them later. Who is to say, except Mr Trump, that he won’t reconsider increasing, lowering or cancelling the $100,000 fee for certain companies, industries or even individuals?
India: 71% of H-1B holders
India is the world’s third-largest freelance workforce, with an estimated 15 million freelancers. The country is a global powerhouse for outsourced services due to its vast pool of skilled, English-speaking professionals and competitive rates. This has made India a primary destination for businesses worldwide seeking talent in fields such IT, pharmaceuticals, web development, and digital marketing. India’s freelance and gig economies are also the fastest-growing globally.
- Some 71% of H-1B visa holders in the US are Indian. Foreign workers on H-1B visas now account for 65% of the IT workforce in the US. Rough calculations would put the total Indian H-1B visa holders in the IT sector at about 323,050 (455,000×0.71). This may seem like a small number, but put into some context, there are claims of bias. There have been reports that many tech companies in the US that have Indian hiring managers have a bias against non-Indian candidates. Several court cases have arisen over this issue, including:
- A lawsuit filed by the US Department of Labor against Oracle in 2017 alleged “hiring discrimination against qualified White, Hispanic, and African-American applicants in favour of Asian applicants, particularly Asian Indians.”
- Tata Consultancy Services, one of the largest IT employers in the world, hires South Asians on visas for 95% of its U.S. workforce, a class action claimed in Federal Court.
- There were reports of a former Infosys executive filing a lawsuit in 2016, accusing the company of a “racist bias that favours Indian techies over others.” The lawsuit cited the lack of diversity at the firm, claiming that while South Asians make up roughly 1% of the US population, they accounted for 93-94% of Infosys’s US workforce.
According to the Guardian, “A statement from India’s external affairs ministry over the weekend said the [new H-1B] fee would have humanitarian consequences ‘by way of the disruption caused for families’…The Indian government said it hopes that these disruptions can be addressed suitably by the US authorities and emphasised that the exchange of skilled workers has ‘contributed enormously’ to both nations.
Given the UK’s recent investment injection from big tech, this talent could be rerouted to the UK.
China
Some 11.7% of H-1B visa holders in the US come from China. Existing holders can remain, but like all visas, for a limited time. Therefore, new applicants may be looking to relocate to other satellite offices of big companies such as Amazon, TCS, Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Google.
China’s K-visa comes into effect from 1 October 2025. This move will help attract young and skilled professionals in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) from around the world, notably those who were looking to move to the US.
The K visa has improvements over China’s 12 ordinary visa categories, according to a Gulf News report:
- Multiple entries, longer validity, and extended stays.
- No employer sponsorship required. Unlike most work visas, applicants don’t need a local employer invitation.
- Wide scope of activity. Holders can participate in academic, scientific, technological, cultural, entrepreneurial, and business exchanges.
- “Bar specific age, educational background, and work experience requirements, applications for K visas do not require a domestic employer or entity to issue an invitation, and the process will be more streamlined,” according to a government statement.
UK
Dame Anne Glover, Chief Executive and Co-Founder of Amadeus Capital Partners, said the recent US/UK Tech Prosperity Deal is a welcome signal of confidence in the UK’s tech ecosystem.
She said:
The scale of investment demonstrates global confidence in the UK as a hub for innovation and growth. This partnership will not only accelerate the development of transformative technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced nuclear power, but also create thousands of high-skilled jobs and new opportunities for communities across the country.
However, Glover warned that the UK must ensure that this momentum translates into sustainable growth for homegrown companies:
That means doubling down on talent development, regulatory clarity, and domestic capital formation, so that British innovation doesn’t just attract foreign investment, but thrives independently. Innovation alone isn’t enough, we must fuel it with patient, risk-embracing capital, and create a policy environment that supports long-term scaling.
For example, unlocking even 0.5% of the UK’s vast pension assets for venture capital could be transformative, helping our companies grow and stay rooted in the UK.
Golden opportunity
The big tech capital injection and the steep hike in US H-1B visa costs could be seen as a golden opportunity to poach talent that was set on working in the US.
The UK’s Labour government has already looked to remove some visa fees. The Financial Times reported that the government is considering different fee options.
One is to abolish visa charges for top-level professionals, according to people briefed on the discussions inside Number 10 and the Treasury. “We’re talking about the sort of people who have attended the world’s top five universities or have won prestigious prizes,” said one official. “We’re kicking around the idea of cutting costs to zero.”
International freelance or contractor professionals, however, might prefer remote freelance work for UK companies instead of relocating to the UK. This allows them to avoid the UK’s high cost of living, exorbitant private school fees and complex IR35 off-payroll rules.
Kuwait
The US is not the only market putting in place major policy changes to incentivise companies to hire homegrown talent. For example, new rules have emerged that only Kuwaiti citizens can work and own freelance businesses in Kuwait. The rules extend to expats from GCC also working and setting up freelance businesses in Kuwait. This is regardless of whether the foreign person is a founder or manager of the business. Freelance business licenses cannot be transferred to expats or non-citizens either. The new rules cover 120 industries.
Skilled worker exchange in limbo
‘AI-first’ hiring strategies, combined with protectionist measures for domestic talent, could have global consequences for the freelance economy. This is a significant shift. For the last 25 years, the free movement of international talent has been a key driver of growth in every industry.
Markets that become protectionist will need to invest heavily in nurturing their own talent. That’s not a bad thing. It just slows the scale-up process. However, homegrown expertise doesn’t simply appear; it must be cultivated through effective teaching, wise mentorship, and attractive compensation.
The most successful economies will be those that can find a balance between protecting their local workforce and accessing global talent. As of today, this balance is uncertain, with a few large political and tech players dictating the flow of talent. We’ll likely see more layoffs and protectionist policies on the horizon. If mid-sized and smaller firms can’t attract the talent they need to grow, they’ll be the next to feel the impact.
