Freelancers defy gloom: 6 in 10 confident, says new research
UK freelancers report high business confidence despite tax burdens, offering recruiters and hiring companies a resilient talent pool for 2026
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Why the confidence?
If 2025’s hiring freeze is anything to go by, the only way is up, or so it would seem.
New data from contractor insurer Qdos found 57.19% of freelancers are confident about their business prospects. This resilience comes despite a backdrop of high inflation and limited government support.
For recruiters, this signal suggests a stable, motivated supply of independent experts. Freelancers can use this insight to justify premium rates and negotiate long-term contracts.
- Pent-up hiring demand releasing (after 2025 freeze)
- Specialised skills in hot demand (AI, cybersecurity)
- Skills-based hiring favours freelancers’ expertise
- Entrepreneurial resilience built through tough times
Resilience amidst tax pressures
The Qdos study of over 600 independent workers highlights a “grit and entrepreneurial drive.” Nearly 12% of respondents said they feel “very confident,” while 45.56% are “fairly confident.”
This optimism persists despite a tax system many feel is punitive. Seb Maley, CEO of Qdos, said:
The optimism and resilience shown by freelancers in recent years is remarkable. It’s time for the government to stop holding these workers back.
Not everyone is feeling so positive about the economy
Recent data suggests the broader market remains cautious. The British Chambers of Commerce recently reported that only 46% of all firms expect turnover to increase. This is the lowest level in three years.
Recruiters specialising in retail and hospitality could have another challenging year ahead as the sectors continue to suffer the most. The BCC reported only a third (33%) of hospitality firms expect increased turnover in the next 12 months, with 38% expecting a decrease. 36% of retailers expect increased turnover, while a third (33%) forecast a decrease.
It’s a mixed bag in the manufacturing and construction industries, too. The report stated 42% of manufacturers and 43% of firms in the construction industry are expecting increased turnover. That means a less-than-fruitful 2026.
Plus, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted a 4.7% annual decrease in self-employment jobs. This indicates that while existing freelancers are confident, the total size of the sector has slightly contracted.
Recruiter tactics in 2026
Recruiters are increasingly prioritising “skills over job titles.” According to ManpowerGroup’s Q1 2026 Outlook, hiring intentions are rebounding with a +13% net employment outlook.
Employers across the UK are entering 2026 ready to fulfil the deferred hiring demand of the last six months, according to the ManpowerGroup survey.
The Net Employment Outlook (NEO) for Q1 2026 stands at +13%, marking the first improvement of two percentage points on the previous quarter, since Q2 2025, said the report. The NEO remains 16 points below the previous high of +30% in Q1 2025.
“The labour market is ready to bounce back, after a period of paralysis for British businesses unable to make decisions for fear of government-proposed labour market policy changes; the latest budget announcement has unleashed the pent-up demand so many job seekers had been waiting for,” said Michael Stull, Managing Director, ManpowerGroup UK.
A two-point rise to the Employment Outlook may seem modest, but it marks a notable shift in the UK’s trajectory. After months of negative rhetoric, we’re seeing a return of optimism to hiring intentions, with just the finalisation of the Employee Rights Bill left to springboard the economy further.
-Michael Stull, Managing Director, ManpowerGroup UK
Key trends for freelancers and recruiters to act on:
- Digital integration: Companies are tapping into freelancers for specialised AI and cybersecurity expertise
- Tax compliance: New Making Tax Digital (MTD) rules start in April 2026 for those earning over £50,000
- Upskilling: Freelancers are moving toward “multi-skilled” models to secure higher contract rates and to meet the demands of new roles
As the economy’s mood becomes lighter and brighter, freelancers who prepare for tax reforms and master multiple skills and AI applications will likely feel more positive in their client pitches and ability to diversify their portfolio.
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